Recession Redux: JP Morgan says -6%, WPP says -4.4%, Mags drop 26%, Scatter “Moving Again”, Green Bucks Recession

Worldwide ad expenditures in 2009 will be down almost 6%, a decline that will be driven largely by an estimated 9% drop in U.S. ad spending, according to JPMorgan analyst Alexia Quadrani. The U.S. ad market is anticipated to suffer a 20% loss in local sales and a 6% decline in national ads, Quadrani is reporting.
Who cares if global ad spending is down? Almost everyone should, because ad spending is a barometer of economic confidence. And while many political leaders in the US and worldwide point to “signs of recovery,” three major buyers of advertising around the world are giving the situation thumbs down. Last month, GroupM, a division of WPP, predicted a 4.4% decline in global ad spending for 2009.
Advertising pages for consumer magazines totaled 37,196.43 in the first quarter of 2009, a decline of nearly 26% over the same period last year that was caused primarily by the faltering economy, according to the Publishers Information Bureau (PIB), writes MediaBuyerPlanner. PIB also reported that total magazine rate-card-reported advertising revenue for the first quarter of 2009 closed at $4,183,426,592, posting a 20.2% decline against the same period in 2008.

TV Advertising Scatter Market Moving Again
Ad dollars are creeping back into the TV market, ad buyers say, though they remain uncertain whether the money will replace portions of upfront buys marketers have canceled in recent months. Purchases of so-called scatter, or ad time bought close to a show’s air date, have begun to flow in April, media buyers said. The news should come as a relief to TV networks. In March, the market appeared to be frozen, as advertisers pulled back between 12% and 14% of their “holds,” the second-quarter ad time they earmarked last May during the annual upfront ad-sales session.

Green-Marketing Revolution Defies Recession
Green marketing is turning out to be surprisingly recession-proof, despite gleeful talk from naysayers of “eco-fatigue”. Datamonitor shows 458 launches so far in 2009 of package-goods products that claim to be sustainable, environmentally friendly or “eco-friendly.” If that pace holds all year, it will triple the number of green launches last year, which in turn was more than double the number in 2007. Seventh Generation CEO Jeffrey Hollender said his company’s sales were up 50% last year and 20% in March year over year despite Clorox, Church & Dwight and now SC Johnson entering the space. “The good news is that in general these products are faring better than most categories,” he said. “A lot of people would be desperate to have 5% growth.”
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